6 December 2007Asia TimesGary LaMoshi
The United Nations’ famed can’t-do spirit is in full flower in Bali. The opening phases of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change meeting here seem focused more on what won’t happen rather than what could over these two weeks of talks. ''The past year has helped people around the world understand that nobody can hide from climate change impacts,'' UNFCCC Secretary Yvo de Boer told the conference’s opening session on Monday. Indeed, from Washington finally facing the issue to
Oslo’s Norwegian Nobel Institute awarding Nobel Peace Prizes to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore, to Australia swapping a George W Bush-hugger for a Kyoto signer, a global consensus has emerged that it’s time to act decisively on climate change. ''Public expectations for Bali to provide answers are big,'' de Boer exhorted the delegates. ''The eyes of the world are now upon you. There is a huge responsibility for Bali to deliver.'' But Bali won’t deliver an agreement to cut the carbon emissions that are the top reason for global warming. It won’t deliver commitments from the world’s top three sources of carbon emissions - including host country Indonesia - to accept emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Despite the millions spent on airfares, hotel rooms, taxis, and resort meals, it won’t deliver a dime to poor or rich countries to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Muted trumpetIndonesia’s Environment Minister and president of the conference Rachmat Witoelar said: ''Climate change is unequivocal and accelerating,'' seemingly sounding the clarion call for bold action. Except that we’re talking about the UN here. ''Countries now have to agree on the agenda for the negotiations,'' Witoelar continued. ''This will cover the key areas for the new climate change deal and what the organizational and procedural arrangements are to get to this result.'' Wake me when CNN news personality Anderson Cooper floats by on the next melting ice cap. ''If you’re hearing messages about what it’s not, that’s because we and Indonesia have tried to keep realistic about what will emerge from the conference,'' UNFCCC conference spokesman John Hay explained. ''Politically, if there’s agreement for negotiations to be carried out to reach an agreement on a successor to Kyoto, then Bali is a success. Anything less is unacceptable.'' Hay added, ''It’s true that the Indonesian presidency for the conference and the UN are keen on managing expectations.'' Simpler, perhaps, than managing meaningful results. Despite UN IPCC scientists’ calls for urgent action, there’s a palpable lack of urgency. Some officials here use the term ''road map'' to describe what’s likely to emerge from the Bali meeting. But in fact, the map is already drawn. After Bali 2007 comes Poland 2008, then Denmark 2009. By then, perhaps there will be a successor regime in place of Kyoto after 2012. But with three years of wiggle room, don’t be surprised if the route to agreement runs through additional resorts. Anything less than following the map would be unacceptable to the legions of freeloaders, airlines and five-star hotel operators that are the real beneficiaries of these meetings. Think about 10,000 delegates, airfares, two weeks room and board, double-barreled security by UN and Indonesian police, and divide that by the price of converting coal power stations to natural gas, hybrid cars or ironwood saplings to get a true feel for the cost of these meetings. What’s at stake in Bali may be far less than what’s already lost by the fact of the meeting - and that can’t be hidden in the tidal waves of acronyms and platitudes. Even though it’s one planet, under the Kyoto accord, a ton of carbon emitted in Shanghai is not the same as one emitted in Chicago. Bali is poised not to fell this myth, but to enshrine it in the next agreement. While there may be a global consensus to cut emissions in all countries, there’s a voting consensus to maintain the distinction between developed and developing country carbon. There are 192 parties to the conference, and only 38 of them are classified as industrialized and thus required to cut emissions if they sign the Kyoto Protocol. Do the right mathFollowing the electoral rather than emissions math, the UN’s de Boer said: ''Bold action in the North can fuel clean growth in the South. Without cooperation, technology and incentives, developing countries have little choice but to make the same mistakes that were made in rich countries.'' But developing countries today have choices that weren’t available to 19th and 20th century Europe and America, and it’s foolish to pretend otherwise. Former environment minister and head of Indonesia’s delegation Emil Salim –-it’s hard to find anyone here that’s not a head or chief of something - said: ''We don’t want to develop our country like the developed countries did. We want to learn from their mistakes.'' Dozens of innovative strategies will be on offer in Bali. The question is simply whether the UN has the will to push developing countries to make better choices. ''It looks like an environmental issue,'' China’s chief delegate Xie Zenhua said of climate change, ''but it’s a development issue.'' China is a prime example of a country that, left to its own devices, seems to have consciously chosen climate unfriendly development. Does anyone believe a government that forced its citizens to limit breeding with the one-child policy - let alone a one-party policy - couldn’t have continued the no-car policy that remained largely in place even a decade ago? Instead, China opted for the automobile development model that so poorly served the planet elsewhere. To be sure, China got plenty of ''cooperation, technology and incentives'' for its choice, from the likes of General Motors, Volkswagen, Caltex and their Chinese government-owned partners. Bali will not level the playing field to let small companies and nongovernmental organizations compete. Bali also won’t be about what developing countries need to do, but what developed countries are not doing. ''Developed countries should take the lead,'' conference president Witoelar said, even regarding deforestation that’s happening more quickly in his own country, on his watch, than anywhere else on earth. Now that Australia has agreed to sign on for Kyoto - which, despite the supposed urgency for action, doesn’t require emissions reductions at all until next year - delegates can single-mindedly focus on the US failure to endorse the agreement. Yet, US aside, three of the top five sources of carbon emissions are exempt from reductions under Kyoto. At least the conference is taking one indisputably positive step. Experts estimate the UNFCCC meeting itself will generate 50,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. To offset it, 4.5 million trees will be planted across Indonesia, locking up some 900,000 tons of carbon annually. That may also offset the hot air coming out of Bali that can be expected over these next two weeks. Gary LaMoshi has worked as a broadcast producer, print reporter and editor in the US and Asia. Longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, he's also a contributor to Slate and Salon.com, and a counselor for Writing Camp (www.writingcamp.net).
