20 September 2007Japan Times
Rising temperatures and extreme weather conditions brought on by climate change could reduce rice yields by as much as 40 percent by the end of the 21st century in much of central and southern Japan, according to research data released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The official public launch of the full IPCC assessment — "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" — identifies world regions most likely to be affected by climate change and highlights crops and agriculture under threat in Asia as a whole.
Evidence included in the report that was gathered by the International Rice Research Institute suggests that rice yields "decrease by 10 percent for every 1 degree increase in growing-season minimum temperature," leading to a decline in potentially good agricultural land.
Even the irrigated lowlands in many prefectures in central and southern Japan are thought likely to suffer from the projected doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the resultant occurrence of "heat-induced floret sterility."
Research into the climate-related biodiversity loss in Asia also revealed that besides changes in the flowering date of Japanese cherry trees, there has been a "decrease in alpine flora in Hokkaido and other high mountains and the expansion of the distribution of southern broad-leaved evergreen trees."
Forest ecosystems in Japan are listed as being under threat, with approximately 90 percent of the suitable habitat for a dominant forest species of the beech tree, Fagus crenata, in the country thought likely to "disappear" by the end of this century.
Established in 1988 by two U.N. organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. Environment Program, the IPCC attempts to evaluate the risk of climate change brought on by humans based on contributions from governments and scientific experts from more than 100 countries around the world.
Speaking at the launch of the research in London, British Trade and Development Minister Gareth Thomas said, "Climate change is inherently a developmental challenge — failing to tackle it will lead to floods, droughts and natural disasters which can destroy people's lives as well as their livelihoods."
The report urges countries to employ decisive and collective action to prevent and prepare for the impacts of climate change in both the developed and developing worlds.
In particular, the so-called megacities in Asia that are located in coastal zones are advised to "ensure that future constructions are done at elevated levels" and that the Integrated Coastal Zone Management employed in Japan and elsewhere is adhered to in response to sea-level rises.
The report says that even under the most conservative scenario, sea levels in Asia will be about 40 cm higher at the end of the 21st century than at present and the potential impacts of a 1-meter sea-level rise include the inundation of 2,339 sq. km of land occupied largely by big cities in Japan.
With many coastal parts of Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya located below high water levels, projections suggest that a 1-meter rise in sea level could put up to 4.1 million people at risk.
In addition to rising sea levels, indicators in the report compounded by Japan's Meteorological Agency point toward an increase in annual precipitation in most of Asia this century, with Japan likely to experience more extreme rainfalls and serious floods attributed to typhoons and an "increase in atmospheric moisture availability."
