By Mathew CarrNov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Global temperatures may rise at least 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), increasing the risk of mass flooding and disease, because emissions won't be subdued before 2020, the International Energy Agency said.
Carbon dioxide output from fuel combustion could peak around 2025, with China probably overtaking the U.S. this year as the world's biggest emitter, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook 2007 report. That assumes lawmakers adopt new, costly laws to curb greenhouse gases, embrace wind farms and nuclear reactors, and require household appliances to be more efficient.
Keeping temperature gains to less than 3 degrees Celsius, or at a carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere of about 450 parts per million, would need ``exceptionally vigorous policy action,'' the IEA report said. ``A later peak and less-sharp reductions in emissions would lead to higher concentrations and bigger increases in temperature.''
The United Nations will host a meeting of 190 countries in Indonesia next month to agree limits for greenhouse gases starting 2013. Rising sea levels, floods and droughts caused by climate change are likely to prompt mass migrations accompanied by conflicts and sickness, a UN report said in August.
Under the IEA's most ambitious scenario, carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion would need to peak in 2012 at about 30 billion metric tons, falling to 23 billion tons in 2030, much less than the expected 41.9 billion tons under current energy policies, the IEA said.
Reference Scenario
The 41.9 billion-ton forecast for 2030 is the IEA's reference, or business-as-usual, scenario. Energy-related emissions in 2005 were 26.6 billion tons, the Paris-based agency said in its report.
``The 450 stabilization case is really, really unprecedented,'' Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, told reporters today in a London meeting. ``Even I sometimes call it scientific fiction.''
The cost of building new electricity generating capacity would be ``very high'' under that most ambitious policy scenario, and cumulative investments through 2030 would be at least $1.8 trillion higher than in its reference scenario, the IEA said. ``Early retirement of fossil-fuel generating capacity will comprise almost $1 trillion of the additional investment.''
China Emissions Double
China's emissions, largely driven by coal burning, will probably more than double to 11.4 billion tons by 2030 unless lawmakers change energy policies, the IEA said. China and India together might account for 56 percent of emissions growth, as populations attempt to mirror Western lifestyles.
Even so, China's per capita emissions will be less than half those in the U.S., at 7.9 tons versus 19 tons, the report said. The European Union and the U.S. caused the build-up of the world's emissions, accounting for more than half of cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2005, while China and India contributed 8 percent and 2 percent, respectively, the IEA said.
A key method to curb emissions will likely be carbon capture and storage, or clean-coal technology, the IEA said. That's where power stations capture greenhouse gases and pipe them to underground stores instead of venting them into the atmosphere.
The current lowest likely cost of this technology is $50 (34.55 euros) a ton of carbon dioxide for a new coal station, the IEA said. That's 44 percent more than the price of EU carbon dioxide allowances for December 2012, which traded yesterday at about 24 euros a ton on the European Climate Exchange in London.
``Assuming reasonable rates of technology learning, the total cost of carbon capture and storage might be expected to drop to below $25 a ton of carbon dioxide by 2030,'' the report said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mathew Carr in London at
